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Survivorship Bias

The logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, often leading to false conclusions.

Why Does It Exist?

Survivorship bias exists because of our tendency to pay attention to success stories while ignoring the failures that don't make it into the final analysis. This bias can skew our understanding of reality, making success seem more attainable than it actually is. It stems from a natural human inclination to prefer positive, uplifting stories and the availability of data — we often have more information about the "survivors" than those who didn't succeed.

Why Is It Important to Understand?

Understanding survivorship bias is important because it affects decision-making, risk assessment, and our perception of success. By only considering success stories, we may overlook critical risk factors and challenges, leading to overly optimistic expectations and potential failure. Recognizing this bias helps in developing a more balanced view, considering the full range of outcomes when evaluating strategies, investments, or any endeavor that has elements of risk and uncertainty.

How to Use It to Your Advantage

To use survivorship bias to your advantage, actively seek out and consider information about both successes and failures in any given area. This comprehensive approach can lead to more informed and realistic decisions. In research and analysis, acknowledging and adjusting for survivorship bias can improve the accuracy of your conclusions. Additionally, understanding this bias can make you more resilient, as you recognize that failure is a common, often overlooked part of the journey to success.

How It Is Used Against You

Survivorship bias can be exploited in marketing, investment strategies, and motivational narratives. For example, highlighting the few successful investors in a particular scheme without mentioning the many who lost money can attract more investors based on a distorted perception of success. Similarly, motivational stories that focus only on those who overcame great odds can create unrealistic benchmarks for success, discouraging those who face setbacks or fail to achieve similar outcomes.

Examples

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